UVM Cancer Center - Revision history

Ed: /* NCI Data */

2023-03-06T05:06:23Z

NCI Data

Ed: /* NCI Data */

2023-03-06T05:05:56Z

NCI Data

Ed: /* NCI Data */

2023-03-06T05:04:43Z

NCI Data

Ed: /* Research funding */

2023-03-06T04:58:34Z

Research funding

Ed at 04:57, 6 March 2023

2023-03-06T04:57:28Z

Ed at 04:43, 6 March 2023

2023-03-06T04:43:06Z

Ed: /* NCI Data */

2023-03-06T01:14:37Z

NCI Data

Ed: Created page with " == NIH Grant Data == 500px I had Federal Grant Data from the NIH to hand from another project, updated to 2021 (see Vermo..."

2023-03-06T01:14:02Z

Created page with " == NIH Grant Data == right|500px I had Federal Grant Data from the NIH to hand from another project, updated to 2021 (see Vermo..."

New page

== NIH Grant Data ==

[[File:VermontNIHGrants2000to2021.PNG|right|500px]] I had [[Federal Grant Data]] from the NIH to hand from another project, updated to 2021 (see [[Vermont Science and Technology Plan]]). It shows that:
* UVM and non-UVM NIH grants combined were at '''record low levels in 2017''' and were at their '''second-lowest level on record in 2021'''.
* UVM averaged around 150 NIH grants per year until about 2010. From 2011 to the present, it has averaged closer to 100 grants per year.
* The total value of NIH grants to UVM also fell in 2011 but has increased somewhat in the last 5 years.
* Non-UVM NIH grants experienced a boom from 2006 to 2016 but are now back to near-zero levels.

== NCI Data ==

Files:
* The SQL is E:\projects\grants\NIH\LoadNIH.sql
* The images, analysis, and reference files are in Z:\projects\Vermont\Cancer Center

[[NumberOfNCIGrantsInVermont.PNG|right|500px]] The number of National Cancer Institute grants received in Vermont follows a familiar pattern: It oscillates around a modest value from the start of the data in 1987 before declining precipitously at some point between 2000 and 2010. For the NCI data, this decline happened around 2005. The mean value in the late 20th century was around 20, and the mean following the decline is around 8. Moreover, before the collapse, a few grants were received by organizations other than UVM, but only UVM received NCI grants after 2012.

[[AmountOfNCIGrantsInVermont.PNG|right|500px]] The NCI doesn't provide amounts for grants prior to 2012. When there are amounts available, only UVM received grants, and the grant amounts followed the same trend as the grant numbers. The mean grant amount is around $850,000.

@@ Line 93: / Line 93: @@
 [[File:AmountOfNCIGrantsInVermont.PNG|right|500px]] The NCI doesn't provide amounts for grants prior to 2012. When there are amounts available, only UVM received grants, and the grant amounts followed the same trend as the grant numbers. The mean grant amount is around $850,000.
-So, for the Cancer Center to achieve its goal of $15m/yr in grants, it would need around 18 grants per year. There were 631 organizations receiving funding from the NCI in 2021; an organization with 18 grants per year is around the 85th percentile. Of course, not all NCI grants will likely accrue to the Cancer Center. The Cancer Center would, therefore likely have to add between 10 and 15 grants per year to UVM's totals.
+So, for the Cancer Center to achieve its goal of $15m/yr in grants, it would need around 18 grants per year. There were 631 organizations receiving funding from the NCI in 2021; an organization with 18 grants per year is around the 85th percentile. Of course, not all NCI grants will likely accrue to the Cancer Center. The Cancer Center would, therefore, likely have to add between 10 and 15 grants per year to UVM's totals.
-Below is a list of institutions that UVM would have to be competitive in terms of NCI grants to achieve its goals:
+Below is a list of institutions that UVM would have to be competitive with in terms of NCI grants to achieve its goals:
   UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER
   JACKSON LABORATORY

@@ Line 100: / Line 100: @@
   UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO
   STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK
   UNIVERSITY OF IOWA
   PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR
   THE MILKEN INSTITUTE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH AT THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
   BROAD INSTITUTE, INC.

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:04, 6 March 2023
Line 94:		Line 94:

	So, for the Cancer Center to achieve its goal of $15m/yr in grants, it would need around 18 grants per year. There were 631 organizations receiving funding from the NCI in 2021; an organization with 18 grants per year is around the 85th percentile. Of course, not all NCI grants will likely accrue to the Cancer Center. The Cancer Center would, therefore likely have to add between 10 and 15 grants per year to UVM's totals.		So, for the Cancer Center to achieve its goal of $15m/yr in grants, it would need around 18 grants per year. There were 631 organizations receiving funding from the NCI in 2021; an organization with 18 grants per year is around the 85th percentile. Of course, not all NCI grants will likely accrue to the Cancer Center. The Cancer Center would, therefore likely have to add between 10 and 15 grants per year to UVM's totals.
		+
		+	Below is a list of institutions that UVM would have to be competitive in terms of NCI grants to achieve its goals:
		+	UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER
		+	JACKSON LABORATORY
		+	UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO
		+	STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK
		+	GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
		+	UNIVERSITY OF IOWA
		+	PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV HERSHEY MED CTR
		+	THE MILKEN INSTITUTE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH AT THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
		+	PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
		+	BROAD INSTITUTE, INC.

	== NIH Grant Data ==		== NIH Grant Data ==

@@ Line 64: / Line 64: @@
 * Estimating multiplier effects (in-state), especially for non-labor, when there is no in-state activity outside of UVM!
 ** In particular, there are no externalities to clinical trials or federal grants because there is no one else in the state to benefit from spillovers.
-* The Cancer Center proposes making UVM a top 10% recipient of cancer grants and accounting for perhaps 25% of all UVM NIH grants (15% of funding).
+* The Cancer Center proposes making UVM a 90th percentile recipient of cancer grants and accounting for perhaps 25% of all UVM NIH grants (15% of funding).
   From FY 2021 to FY 2030, the research spending will add $161.6 million in

@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 === Operations vs. Patients ===
-**Issue: Sales remain the same each year from 2025 to 2030, but patients increase by more than 50% from 12k to 19k.**
+'''Issue: Sales remain the same each year from 2025 to 2030, but patients increase by more than 50% from 12k to 19k.'''
 Operations:
@@ Line 33: / Line 33: @@
 === Discount Rate ===
-**Issue: Discount rate is negative(!), not taken from the stated source, and entirely wrong!**
+'''Issue: Discount rate is negative(!), not taken from the stated source, and entirely wrong!'''
   A discount rate of -0.3% was used, which represents the discount rate recommended by the Office of Management
@@ Line 61: / Line 61: @@
 === Research funding ===
-**Issues:**
+'''Issues:'''
 * Estimating multiplier effects (in-state), especially for non-labor, when there is no in-state activity outside of UVM!
 ** In particular, there are no externalities to clinical trials or federal grants because there is no one else in the state to benefit from spillovers.
@@ Line 76: / Line 76: @@
 === Students ===
-**Issue: Students are double-counted (and their spillovers are quadruple-counted). Their economic benefit is already contained in the labor spend from operations or the grant income.
+'''Issue: Students are somewhat double-counted. Their economic benefit (while students) is already contained in the labor spend from operations or the grant income.'''
   The spending of these relocated and retained students can be attributed to UVMCC.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-== NIH Grant Data ==
+== Issues ==
-[[File:VermontNIHGrants2000to2021.PNG|right|500px]] I had [[Federal Grant Data]] from the NIH to hand from another project, updated to 2021 (see [[Vermont Science and Technology Plan]]). It shows that:
+**Issues:**
-* UVM and non-UVM NIH grants combined were at '''record low levels in 2017''' and were at their '''second-lowest level on record in 2021'''.
+* Estimating multiplier effects (in-state), especially for non-labor, when there is no in-state activity outside of UVM!
-* UVM averaged around 150 NIH grants per year until about 2010. From 2011 to the present, it has averaged closer to 100 grants per year.
+** In particular, there are no externalities to clinical trials or federal grants because there is no one else in the state to benefit from spillovers.
-* The total value of NIH grants to UVM also fell in 2011 but has increased somewhat in the last 5 years.
+* The Cancer Center proposes making UVM a top 10% recipient of cancer grants and accounting for perhaps 25% of all UVM NIH grants (15% of funding).
 == NCI Data ==
@@ Line 14: / Line 89: @@
 * The images, analysis, and reference files are in Z:\projects\Vermont\Cancer Center
-[[File:NumberOfNCIGrantsInVermont.PNG|right|500px]] The number of National Cancer Institute grants received in Vermont follows a familiar pattern: It oscillates around a modest value from the start of the data in 1987 before declining precipitously at some point between 2000 and 2010. For the NCI data, this decline happened around 2005. The mean value in the late 20th century was around 20, and the mean following the decline is around 8. Moreover, before the collapse, a few grants were received by organizations other than UVM, but only UVM received NCI grants after 2012.
+[[File:NumberOfNCIGrantsInVermont.PNG|right|500px]] The number of National Cancer Institute grants received in Vermont follows a familiar pattern: It oscillates around a modest value from the start of the data in 1987 before declining precipitously at some point between 2000 and 2010. For the NCI data, this decline happened around 2005. The mean value in the late 20th century was around 20 (i.e., ~18 for UVM and ~2 for other Vermont), and the mean following the decline is around 8. Moreover, before the collapse, a few grants were received by organizations other than UVM, but only UVM received NCI grants after 2012.
-[[File:AmountOfNCIGrantsInVermont.PNG|right|500px]] The NCI doesn't provide amounts for grants prior to 2012. When there are amounts available, only UVM received grants, and the grant amounts followed the same trend as the grant numbers. The mean grant amount is around $850,000.
+Assuming the Cancer Center meets its goals, it would add somewhere between 10 and perhaps 15 new grants (depending on how many cancer grants will accrue to researchers outside of the center) for a total between $8 and $12m additional dollars. This suggests that the Cancer Center will need to: