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Market of Ideas Research Notes (view source)
Revision as of 16:33, 28 September 2016
, 16:33, 28 September 2016no edit summary
There are no current estimates of the average number of transactions per patent. Some patents, such as those participating in some patent pools, may be licensed several thousand times. However, exclusive licenses are still very common and patent sales typically do not occur annually. A range of say 1 to 5 transactions per patent is a reasonable guess.
Likewise, with so much rough estimation of other necessary numbers, no reasonable estimates of the magnitudes of spillovers is available. Innovation has strong positive externalities so the spillover factor should therefore be greater than 1. Moreover, innovation is an input into many different types of economic activity, including more innovation. This would suggest that, at least for the purposes of GDP accounting, the multiplier should be more than 2: The seller would experience the revenue from the license and the buyer would experience new revenue from the sale of a product or new innovation for which the input was necessary.
*approximately 2.5m active patents available to participate in the market for ideas today
*"at any given time, over about 95% of patents are unlicensed and over about 97% of patents are generating no royalties"
:: [https://books.google.com/books?id=rESRFPqSKzQC&q=unlicensed#v=snippet&q=unlicensed&f=false From Ideas to Assets: Investing Wisely in Intellectual Property Page 332]
===University Licensing===
'''AUTM Report:''' [http://www.autmvisitors.net/sites/default/files/documents/FY2014%20Highlights.pdf 2014 Licensing Acticity Survey, Association of University Technology Managers]
:: Data is for Universities/Academic Institutions
*5,435 licenses executed (up 4.5% over prior year)
*1,461 options executed (up 7.7%)
*549 executed licenses containing equity (up 17%)
*914 startup companies formed (up 11.7%)
*4,688 startups still operating as of the end of FY2014 (up 11.4%)
*965 new commercial products created (up $34.2%)
*6,363 U.S. patents issued (up 11%)
===Corporate Licensing===
*Interesting Report [https://www.ibm.com/ibm/files/N225208E26630J62/inventors_forum.pdf IBM Inventor's Forum Global Innovation Outlook Report]
::*U.S. firms annually waste $1 trillion in underused IP assets by failing to extract full value through partnerships, according to Navi Radjou of Forrester Research.
::*
*Another IBM Report [https://www.ibm.com/ibm/files/S376023B46442F89/building_a_new_ip_marketplace-report.pdf Building A New IP Marketplace report]
::*“In 200 , the number of patent applications we received continued to grow at a rapid pace. Our of ce now receives many patent applications on CD-ROM, containing millions of pages of data. In short, the volume and complexity of patent applications continues to outpace current capacity to examine them. The result is a pending— and growing— application backlog of historic proportions.”
:::Jon W. Dudas Under Secretary of Commerce for Intellectual Property and Director of the United States Patent and Trademark Office USPTO 2005 Annual Report
::*“Obviously, one thing a market does is to determine prices. With patents or patent licenses, this is reasonably tricky. Patent rights are options on an uncertain future. We ought to seek some guidance from how options markets operate.”
:::Frederic M. Scherer Harvard University
===Market for Technology===
[http://www.hbs.edu/businesshistory/Documents/BHR870102.pdf Patent Alchemy: The Market for Technology in US History] by Naomi R. Lamoreaux, Kenneth L. Sokoloff, and Dhanoos Sutthiphisal
::*According to Carlos Serrano. Carlos J. Serrano, “The Dynamics of the Transfer and Renewal of Patents,” RAND Journal of Economics 41 (Winter 2010): 686–708 [http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2010.00117.x/full Link]
:::*12.4 percent of patents obtained in last two decades of 20th century were sold
::*Another Serrano paper cited in above Lamoreaux et al, quote from Lamaoreaux:
:::*"Using data on renewals, Serrano calculated that patents that were sold were on average about three times more valuable than those that were not" (Lamoreaux 35)
:::: from Estimating the Gains from Trade in the Market for Innovation: Evidence from the Transfer of Patents,” NBER Working Paper 17304 (Aug. 2011). [http://www.nber.org/papers/w17304 Link]
== Patent Valuation ==
'''Griliches Excerpt:'''
"Among the patents reported to be in current use and with relevant numerical responses and a positive gain (accounting for about 20 percent of all the relevant responses), the mean value was $577,000 per patent, but the median value was only about $25,000 (implying, under the assumption of log normality, 2.5 as the coefficient of variation and a standard deviation of about $1.5 million). If one includes all the no gain, loss, and not yet used patents, the mean gain falls to about $11 2,000, and the median is close to zero or below (computed from the tables in Sanders, Rossman, and Hams 1958, pp. 355 and 357). Even this lower mean number is quite impressive, roughly equivalent to $473,000 per average patent in 1988 prices (using the GNP deflator to convert it from 1957 prices), but so also is the associated dispersion." (Griliches 309)
Griliches, Z. (1998). Patent statistics as economic indicators: a survey.
